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| #453300 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 25.Aug.2011) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102011 500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011 DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED. THE CURVED BANDS FROM EARLIER TODAY ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE MORPHED INTO A BURSTING PATTERN...INDICATIVE OF A SHEARED CYCLONE. THE INITIAL WINDS WILL REMAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR COULD PREVENT STRENGTHENING OF THE DEPRESSION IN THE SHORT-TERM ALONG WITH THE POOR INITIAL STRUCTURE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY IS ON FRIDAY WITH GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTING A DECREASE IN SHEAR WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. HOWEVER...THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE MARKEDLY AFTER 48 HOURS IN ADDITION TO THE DEPRESSION ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS. THE NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED AND TURNED TO THE RIGHT... WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/8. THIS TURN IS DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING AS A TROUGH FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS INTO THIS WEAKNESS. A LEFTWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 3 DAYS AS THE CYCLONE DECAYS AND BECOMES MORE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A LARGE SPREAD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SEEMS TO BE LINKED TO THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH. SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GAIN MUCH STRENGTH...THE FORECAST LIES NEAR OR LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE LONG RANGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 13.8N 32.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 14.4N 33.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 15.2N 34.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 16.0N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 16.9N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 19.0N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 20.5N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 21.5N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
