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| #453610 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 PM 26.Aug.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 200 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 ...IRENE WEAKENS A LITTLE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARRIVING ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 77.5W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SANDY HOOK TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...BLOCK ISLAND...BOSTON...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN BY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY. IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. A COASTAL MARINE OBSERVING SITE AT FOLLY ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA RECENTLY MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 55 MPH...89 KM/H. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURE BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE... DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
