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| #453662 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 26.Aug.2011) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT FIND ANY HIGHER WINDS AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN FACT...DATA FROM NEAR THE CONCLUSION OF THE FLIGHT SUPPORT A SLIGHT LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY. THE AIRCRAFT DID REPORT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF 50-55 KT 135 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER...SHOWING THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD ABOUT 225-250 N MI OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE HAS ERODED. ALTHOUGH IRENE WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...THE LACK OF AN INNER CORE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY RESTRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH NOT SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...IRENE COULD WEAKEN JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IMPACTS FROM THIS LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL NOT BE VERY DIFFERENT IF IT IS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR LOW-END HURRICANE. IRENE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS ALMOST ANYWHERE FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. IRENE IS STILL MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360/12 KT. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON THAT HEADING UP THE EAST COAST...AND BE MOVING AT ABOUT 15-17 KT AS IT APPROACHES LONG ISLAND...MUCH SLOWER THAN NORMAL FOR STORMS IN THIS AREA...WHICH WILL PRODUCE EXTENDED PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN MANY AREAS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF IRENE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL CYCLES. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 31.7N 77.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 33.4N 77.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 35.5N 76.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/0600Z 38.2N 75.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 28/1800Z 41.8N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 29/1800Z 50.5N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 30/1800Z 56.5N 51.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/1800Z 58.0N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI |
