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| #454203 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 28.Aug.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 ...IRENE MOVING ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR NEW YORK CITY AND INLAND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.2N 74.5W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND... MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC * NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE * UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 39.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING...AND MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANCE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE IRENE MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY. AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND... IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES...520 KM. LA GUARDIA AIRPORT IN NEW YORK CITY RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 MPH...67 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 64 MPH...104 KM/H. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH...93 KM/H...WERE ALSO RECENTLY REPORTED AT JOHN F. KENNEDY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN NEW YORK CITY. WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RISING RAPIDLY IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER OF IRENE...WITH RECENTLY OBSERVED STORM SURGE VALUES OF 3.9 FEET AT SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...3.8 FEET AT NEW YORK HARBOR...AND 3.1 FEET AT CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE OBSERVING SITE IN ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 968.7 MB...28.61 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. ALONG THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS...AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING... LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS... ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
