Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #454267 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:03 AM 28.Aug.2011) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011 800 AM AST SUN AUG 28 2011 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF BERMUDA HAS MAINTAINED ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...THE LOW HAS EXPERIENCED SEVERAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH ANOTHER BURST NOW BEGINNING JUST EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED TO 2.0 AND SUPPORT INITIATING ADVISORIES. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 35 KT...BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM OVERNIGHT WHICH SUGGESTED THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST 35 KT. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SHEAR OF 40-50 KT OVER THE CYCLONE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IRENE...IS HAMPERING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR COULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DISSIPATION WITHIN 36 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEFORE LOSING ITS IDENTITY. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE CYCLONE TO BERMUDA...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1200Z 30.8N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 32.4N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 35.0N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE |
