Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #454302 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 28.Aug.2011) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 28 2011 THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF JOSE IN RECENT HOURS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN RE-DEVELOPING NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IRENE HAS PREVENTED ANY BURST FROM LASTING TOO LONG. EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE INTENSITY WAS NEAR 35 KT...AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CLOUD PATTERN... THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME REDUCTION IN THE SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...IT WOULD NOT LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT WEAKENING AS THE CIRCULATION OF JOSE BECOMES DEFORMED. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DISSIPATION WITHIN 24-36 HOURS IN PART BECAUSE OF THE SHEAR...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST REFLECTS THIS LIKELIHOOD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/12. JOSE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AFTER WEAKENING...THE REMNANTS OF JOSE SHOULD TURN NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE LOSING ITS IDENTITY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 31.5N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 33.6N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 36.6N 65.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH |
