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| #454569 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 29.Aug.2011) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011 500 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011 JOSE WAS DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR ABOUT SIX HOURS OVERNIGHT BUT HAS RECENTLY REGAINED SOME DEEP CONVECTION...ALBEIT NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED...NEAR THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0100 UTC STILL SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF WINDS AROUND 35 KT...AND THAT WILL REMAIN THE INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE VERY COMPACT TROPICAL STORM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM...BUT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER A SHARP SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TODAY AND MOVE OVER WATERS NEAR 25C THIS AFTERNOON. THESE COOL WATERS...VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR...AND THE EXPECTED INTERACTION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF JOSE SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 20 KT. STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRENE AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL STEER JOSE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 37.2N 64.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 40.1N 63.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
