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| #454732 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 29.Aug.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 500 PM AST MON AUG 29 2011 THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. BANDING FEATURES HAVE NOT BECOME MORE DEFINED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE SYSTEM WILL LESSEN WITHIN A DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING TO COMMENCE SOON. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION IS JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST OR ABOUT 280/12. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR FORECAST REASONING FROM THIS MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 50W LONGITUDE. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE WEAKNESS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD OVER TIME. AS A RESULT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTION...BUT LEANS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF TRACK AS THE GFS SEEMS TO BE TOO SLOW IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 10.2N 28.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 10.9N 30.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 11.9N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 13.0N 35.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 14.0N 38.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 15.5N 45.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 17.0N 50.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 19.0N 55.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
