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| #455072 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 30.Aug.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2011 A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. SINCE THAT TIME...ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER AND IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNCHANGED FROM 1800 UTC...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. KATIA IS FORECAST TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM WATER AND VERY LOW SHEAR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS KATIA BECOMING A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 2-3 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY AIDS THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS CLOSER TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE HWRF/GFDL GUIDANCE AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. KATIA IS MOVING BRISKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/19 KT. KATIA SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...KATIA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INDUCES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT AT DAYS 4 AND 5 TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 13.3N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 14.0N 40.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 14.8N 43.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 15.5N 46.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 16.5N 49.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 18.5N 54.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 20.5N 57.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 23.0N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
