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| #455178 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 31.Aug.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 1100 AM AST WED AUG 31 2011 KATIA REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES AND A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T3.5 FROM BOTH AGENCIES AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. AT THE MOMENT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE DRY AIR ADJACENT TO THE STORM IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHICH SHOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING AT LEAST FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF KATIA COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS NOTED EARLIER...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW COULD PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN 4 TO 5 DAYS WHICH WOULD INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS. KATIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SWIFTLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/18 TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME DECELERATION AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS KATIA APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 14.2N 40.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 14.7N 43.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 15.4N 46.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 16.2N 48.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 17.3N 51.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 19.5N 54.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 21.5N 57.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 23.5N 60.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
