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| #455441 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 01.Sep.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 500 PM AST THU SEP 01 2011 KATIA HAS TAKEN THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. THE CURVED BAND THAT WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CENTER HAS DISSIPATED...AND CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK CI AND T NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. UW-CIMMS SHEAR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 15 KT IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING KATIA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF THIS SHEAR. KATIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THIS LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER IT STILL BRINGS KATIA TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS. KATIA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST AT 16 KT. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND HFIP CONSENSUS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE NORTH OF KATIA...WHILE OTHERS SUGGEST THAT THE WEAKNESS WILL PERSIST...BRINGING THE CYCLONE FARTHER NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE HFIP CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 16.1N 49.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 16.8N 51.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 17.7N 52.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 18.7N 54.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 19.7N 56.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 21.6N 59.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 23.5N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 25.5N 65.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/CANGIALOSI |
