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| #455693 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 02.Sep.2011) TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 500 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2011 KATIA REMAINS A HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS STRUGGLING WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. A 1718Z TRMM SATELLITE PASS INDICATED THAT THE SURFACE CENTER IS TILTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. DATA-T NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB DECREASED TO 3.5...THOUGH THE CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS REMAIN AT 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KT...A MINIMAL HURRICANE...THOUGH IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT KATIA IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KT...AS IT IS BEING ADVECTED AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. KATIA SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT ABOUT THE SAME RATE OF SPEED. ALL OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET WHICH HAS A MUCH MORE EQUATORWARD SOLUTION DUE TO A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST MORE QUICKLY. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED UPON THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE MODELS EXCEPT THE UKMET MODEL. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER KATIA WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE UNITED STATES. THE HURRICANE FACES A RELATIVELY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH SOUTHWEST VERTICAL SHEAR OF 15-20 KT LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR AS SHOWN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE SOME. HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMICS AT THAT TIME MAY NOT BE IDEAL AS LOW HUMIDITIES AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS ANTICIPATED. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS MOST SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM/HWRF MODELS AS WELL AS THE NEW IV15 INTENSITY CONSENSUS FROM THE HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM. THE TROPICAL-STORM WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD SOME BASED UPON A 1334Z ASCAT PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 18.4N 53.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 19.0N 54.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 19.9N 55.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 20.9N 57.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 21.9N 58.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 24.0N 62.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 26.0N 65.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 27.5N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART |
