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| #455845 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 03.Sep.2011) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011 ...LEE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 91.9W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST. LEE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LEE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY CROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM MAINLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT SHELL BEACH LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED 6-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 41 MPH...67 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER JUST REPORTED 2-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 51 MPH...81 KM/H AND A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH...96 KM/H AT AN ELEVATION OF 100 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM OIL RIGS IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
