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| #455980 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:43 PM 03.Sep.2011) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LEE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011 100 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011 ...LEE STALLS JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 91.8W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. LEE HAS BEEN STATIONARY THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LEE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM FROM THE CENTER. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A C-MAN STATION AT SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA RECENTLY MEASURED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 46 MPH...75 KM/H AT AN ELEVATION OF 100 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. A STORM SURGE OF 4 FEET HAS BEEN REPORTED AT SHELL BEACH LOUISIANA AND ALSO AT NEW CANAL STATION IN LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A SURGE HEIGHT OF 2 FEET HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR EAST AS PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED THUS FAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND OFFSHORE OIL RIGS INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY. TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
