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| #456131 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 PM 03.Sep.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011 1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF LEE HAS BEEN MEANDERING NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA THIS EVENING. AN OIL PLATFORM LOCATED ABOUT 20 MILES WEST OF MARSH ISLAND HAS BEEN REPORTING A PRESSURE OF AROUND 988 MB MOST OF THE EVENING. THE WINDS AT THAT SITE WERE VARIABLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BUT RECENTLY HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 15-20 KT INDICATING THAT THE CENTER OF LEE REMAINS OFFSHORE. THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND OBSERVATIONS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS ARE 40-44 KT AT SEVERAL ELEVATED RIGS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. LEE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...SINCE A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER WATER...LEE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS. LEE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD TURN LEE EASTWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST LEE WILL BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 2-3 DAYS...A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO NOW INDICATE DISSIPATION OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN 4-5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL POSITION...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SINCE HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND VERY FAR FROM THE CENTER IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 29.4N 92.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 30.0N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0000Z 30.4N 91.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1200Z 30.7N 90.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/0000Z 32.0N 89.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 07/0000Z 34.0N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/0000Z 36.5N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
