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| #456219 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 04.Sep.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011 400 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT LEE IS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 40 KT WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE ALL AVAILABLE SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING AT ELEVATED PLATFORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. LEE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE FLAT TERRAIN OF EXTREME SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER WATER. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN MORE SLOWLY THAN INDICATED BY THE TYPICAL INLAND DECAY RATE...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE. BY 48 HOURS OR SOONER...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO HAVE OCCURRED BY THAT TIME. BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM THOSE SAME GLOBAL MODELS...DISSIPATION IS LIKELY AFTER 96 HOURS. THE CURRENT MOTION IS A NORTHWARD DRIFT OR ABOUT 360/2. LEE IS IN A COL REGION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...I.E. WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...AT THIS TIME. A TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE LEFT AS IT MOVES ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS AND VERY SIMILAR THEREAFTER. THIS IS ALSO FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS FORECAST. SINCE HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND VERY FAR FROM THE CENTER...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF LEE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 29.6N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 30.0N 92.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0600Z 30.3N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1800Z 30.8N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/0600Z 32.0N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/0600Z 34.5N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/0600Z 37.0N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
