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| #456428 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 04.Sep.2011) TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 500 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2011 WHILE KATIA HAS HAD A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INFRARED REPRESENTATION OF THE EYE HAS COME AND GONE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1800 UTC WERE A UNANIMOUS T5.0 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. KATIA HAS TURNED JUST A BIT TO THE RIGHT WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 310/10 KT. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECAST CYCLES...THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND AGREES ON MAINTAINING KATIA ON A HEADING OF 310 DEGREES WITH SOME DECELERATION. THEREAFTER...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THERE WAS EARLIER. ACTUALLY...THE GFS...ECWMF...AND UKMET MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND HAVE THE POSITION OF THE LOW WITHIN 200 N MI OF EACH OTHER BY DAY 5. THIS CONFIGURATION SHOULD CAUSE KATIA TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE USUALLY RELIABLE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST AND IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS CYCLE. THE PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION MAY HAVE LEVELED OFF A BIT...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE ONLY APPARENT NEGATIVE FACTORS FOR THIS ARE RELATIVELY WARM UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES AND LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT VALUES ALONG THE FORECAST PATH...ESPECIALLY FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL AT THE UPPER END OF THE RANGE OF GUIDANCE VALUES...CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL HURRICANE MODELS...AND INDICATES GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING ON DAYS 4 AND 5. LONG-PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH KATIA ARE ALREADY APPROACHING PARTS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. EVEN IF KATIA DOES NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE UNITED STATES...THE THREAT FOR HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST COAST BEACHES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR MORE INFORMATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 22.7N 60.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 23.7N 61.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 25.0N 63.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 26.1N 64.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 27.1N 66.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 29.0N 69.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 31.5N 71.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 34.5N 71.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG |
