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| #456527 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 PM 04.Sep.2011) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011 1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011 ...LEE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE APPALACHIANS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.0N 91.4W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF MCCOMB MISSISSIPPI ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LEE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS LEE BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. STORM SURGE...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR LOCATION-SPECIFIC STORM TIDE AND STORM SURGE INFORMATION. TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON LEE. FUTURE INFORMATION ON LEE CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER... UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT33 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
