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| #457292 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 06.Sep.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 06 2011 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z...AND THAT REMAINS THE INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING THROUGH NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH GENERALLY LOW SHEAR AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SSTS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT TERRIBLY ENTHUSIASTIC AND SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL...SHOWING THE CYCLONE BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HOURS AND APPROACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...YIELDING AN INITIAL MOTION OF 280/16. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE CYCLONE REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. WHILE THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO... THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED AMONG THE MODELS. THE GFS AND GFDL ARE FASTEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. OVERALL...THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TOWARD THE SPEED OF THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THROUGH 72 HOURS A SMALL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 11.6N 38.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 12.2N 40.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 12.9N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 13.6N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 14.4N 52.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 16.0N 58.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 18.0N 63.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 21.0N 67.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
