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| #457628 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 07.Sep.2011) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011 0300 UTC THU SEP 08 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.5W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 75SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.5W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.6W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.3N 92.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 75SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.5N 92.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.1N 92.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.7N 92.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.0N 94.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 23.5N 95.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 23.5N 97.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 92.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
