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| #457697 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:32 AM 08.Sep.2011) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 0900 UTC THU SEP 08 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS... AND SAINT KITTS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 48.2W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 48.2W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 47.2W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.8N 51.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.5N 54.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 15.3N 57.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 30SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 16.7N 60.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 30SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.5N 65.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 30SE 30SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 23.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 26.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 48.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
