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| #457698 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 AM 08.Sep.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 500 AM AST THU SEP 08 2011 MARIA CURRENTLY HAS A RATHER DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGES...AND CONSISTS PRIMARILY OF A RATHER SHAPELESS CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CLUSTER. THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES. AN ASCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 KT. HOWEVER...DATA FROM THIS PASS ALSO CAST SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND AN AIRCRAFT MISSION LATER TODAY SHOULD GIVE MORE INFORMATION ON THE STATUS OF MARIA. NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM HAS BEEN IMPARTING ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND INHIBITING STRENGTHENING. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE MORE OR LESS IN TANDEM WITH MARIA THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS FOLLOWED BY SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE IMPACT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CENTER IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO FIND...BUT IT IS PRESUMED THAT MARIA HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A MOTION OF 275/20. A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO AS THE STORM MOVES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SOME DECELERATION IS PREDICTED AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS A LITTLE WITH TIME. IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...MARIA SHOULD BE NEARING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AS USUAL...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK 4 TO 5 DAYS FROM NOW. A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH...MOVING OFF THE U.S EAST COAST...IS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MARIA TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY 96 HOURS. IF THE TROUGH TURNS OUT TO BE WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY PREDICTED...IT COULD DELAY THE NORTHWESTWARD TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BRACKETED BY THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL ON THE LEFT AND BY THE GFS AND HWRF MODELS ON THE RIGHT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 13.5N 48.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 13.8N 51.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 14.5N 54.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 15.3N 57.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 16.7N 60.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 19.5N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 23.0N 69.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 26.0N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
