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| #457732 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 08.Sep.2011) TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 41...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 500 AM AST THU SEP 08 2011 ...CORRECTED FOR TIME NOAA BUOY 41048 HAS PROVIDED VERY VALUABLE DATA IN ESTIMATING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF KATIA. AS THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE APPROACHED...THIS DATA BUOY REPORTED PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS OF 76 KT. THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 80 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS REDUCED TO 970 MB...ALSO BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS BUOY. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT KATIA WILL REMAIN AN INTENSE CYCLONE...OR WEAKEN ONLY SLIGHTLY...FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEM AS A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED NORTHWARD...350/12...AS IT MOVES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND TO THE EAST OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER THE TRACK FORECAST OR THE REASONING BEHIND IT. A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS KATIA OR ITS POST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. INDEED...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE NEARING THE NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 32.0N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 33.9N 70.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 36.6N 68.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 39.2N 64.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 41.5N 57.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 48.5N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0600Z 56.0N 19.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0600Z 60.0N 5.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH |
