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| #457773 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 08.Sep.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 1100 AM AST THU SEP 08 2011 MARIA IS MOVING VERY FAST...AT ABOUT 19-22 KNOTS...AND PROBABLY NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK IF THAT IS THE CASE LATER TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AND CONSISTS OF A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL SWIRL WITH SOME PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE RAINBANDS ARE STILL 40 KNOTS AND THIS IS THE INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...EVEN IF MARIA DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO REGENERATE AS IT SLOWS DOWN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NOT AS HOSTILE AS THEY WERE INDICATING IN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT NONE OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW AN AGGRESSIVE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. MARIA IS SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT AND LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. AFTER THAT...A WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND MOST OF THE MODELS ARE CLUSTERED HAVING MARIA OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN FIVE DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 13.0N 51.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 13.0N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 13.8N 57.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 14.5N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 16.0N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 19.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 22.5N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 25.0N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
