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| #457870 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 08.Sep.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 500 PM AST THU SEP 08 2011 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE. MARIA CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME PATCHES OF CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. IN FACT...MARIA PERHAPS NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION...AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CYCLONE TO DETERMINE IF THAT IS THE CASE. NOAA BUOY 41040 RECENTLY REPORTED 35 KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THIS IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSIGNED TO MARIA. GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...AN ENVIRONMENT NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE FACT THAT THE LGEM...ECMWF AND HWRF MODELS DO NOT STRENGTHEN MARIA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING. THE NHC FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW ANY INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN KEPT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE ISLANDS SHOULD BE READY TO QUICKLY ISSUE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS...IF NECESSARY. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING. MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN THIS PATTERN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER...AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE RELATIVELY TIGHT GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST BUT THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 13.2N 52.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 13.4N 55.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 14.0N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 15.5N 61.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 17.0N 63.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 20.0N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 23.0N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 25.5N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
