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| #457873 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 08.Sep.2011) TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 500 PM AST THU SEP 08 2011 CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THE CENTER OF KATIA AND CLOUD BANDS HAVE INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY DEVOID OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A RECENT ASCAT PASS AND TAFB/SAB SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY. THE TAFB/SAB ESTIMATES ARE THE BASIS FOR A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY...TO 75 KT. KATIA IS MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 005/14. RELIABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO TURN AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM SHOULD PASS NEAR THE BRITISH ISLES IN ABOUT FIVE DAYS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF KATIA...AND THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KATIA WILL WEAKEN RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN LARGE AND POWERFUL AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT TRAVERSES THE NORTH ATLANTIC. INITIAL WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED OUTWARD IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT BASED ON THE RECENT ASCAT PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 34.9N 69.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 36.9N 68.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 39.3N 64.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 41.6N 57.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 44.2N 47.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1800Z 52.2N 23.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1800Z 59.4N 6.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1800Z 62.2N 2.2E 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT/FRANKLIN |
