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| #458044 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 09.Sep.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 500 AM AST FRI SEP 09 2011 THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE CONVECTION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING...AS INDICATED BY BUOY 41101 WHICH RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1003.7 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS AT THIS TIME...AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK MARIA AROUND 1200 UTC. THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IS NOT AS HOSTILE AS IT WAS 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IT IS SOMEWHAT MORE AGGRESSIVE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUCH GUIDANCE. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KNOTS. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AS GLOBAL MODELS NOW FORECAST A WEAKER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. ON THAT BASIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BUT IT IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN CASE MODELS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT CYCLE. GIVEN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 13.8N 56.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 14.5N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 16.0N 61.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 17.5N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 19.0N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 22.0N 69.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 24.0N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 27.0N 73.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
