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| #458115 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 09.Sep.2011) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011 1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM TAMPICO TO LA CRUZ AND FROM VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO * MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO * MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO LA CRUZ A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 92.6W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 90SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 92.6W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 92.5W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.6N 93.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.8N 93.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.9N 94.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.8N 95.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.5N 98.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 20.0N 101.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 92.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
