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| #45812 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 PM 13.Sep.2005) TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 THERE HAS BEEN NO INCREASE IN OPHELIA'S WINDS SINCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PEAK 700 MB WIND OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WAS 76 KT. THE NOAA P3 MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 63 KT WITH THE SFMR AT 2243Z...AND THE NWS/WILMINGTON DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING 85 KT AT 7000 FT. ALL THIS SUGGESTS THAT OPHELIA IS MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY NEAR 65 KT. HOWEVER...ON THE MOST RECENT PASS THROUGH THE STORM THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 982 MB...AND THE EYEWALL HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED ON RADAR DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS STRONG. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT OPHELIA WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT PRIOR TO LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL SSTS SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE AGAINST ANY RAPID CHANGES. THERE HAS BEEN VIRTUALLY NO MOTION OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. 00Z RAOBS AND OFFSHORE DATA FROM THE GULFSTREAM-IV JET SHOW THAT THE 500 MB HIGH THAT HAD BEEN NORTH OF THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED EASTWARD AND IS NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS...COUPLED WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES... SHOULD ALLOW A NORTHERLY MOTION TO RESUME SOON. THIS TROUGH WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE... HOWEVER...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN AN EXCRUCIATINGLY LONG PASSAGE OF THE HURRICANE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SLOW MOTION...COUPLED WITH THE RATHER LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EXTENDED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH WINDS AT OR NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OVER MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MAJOR MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 32.6N 78.0W 65 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 33.4N 77.8W 70 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 34.4N 76.9W 70 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 35.1N 75.8W 65 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 35.7N 74.3W 65 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 38.0N 70.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 18/0000Z 42.5N 61.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 19/0000Z 47.0N 51.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
