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| #458159 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:56 PM 09.Sep.2011) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011 100 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS NATE WEAKER AND DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 92.8W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO * MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO LA CRUZ A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST. NATE HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SLOW WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NATE WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY. PRELIMINARY DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE AND TABASCO. STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS NATE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
