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| #458335 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 10.Sep.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 500 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2011 ...MARIA REFUSES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 60.2W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...SAINT KITTS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICA * ST BARTHELEMY...ST MARTEEN...AND MARTINIQUE * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MARIA AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL MOVE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY...AND REACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY LATER TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS MARIA MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS IT MOVES OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND THEN OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY THE END OF THE DAY. RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
