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| #458401 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 10.Sep.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2011 ...MARIA BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 61.5W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA IS BECOMING POORLY DEFINED. AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...IN A FEW SQUALLS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND MARIA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR DEGENERATE TO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM...OVER WATER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
