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| #458454 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 10.Sep.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 500 PM AST SAT SEP 10 2011 MARIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY. THE CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FLEW THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT JUST AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOUND WINDS TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY OF 40 KT. GLOBAL MODEL AND SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF MARIA WEAKENING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN FOR STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MODEL DOES NOT WEAKEN THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS MUCH AND KEEPS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS NO CHANGE IN WIND SPEED DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME THE NHC FORECAST INDICATES SOME STRENGTHENING...BUT IT REMAINS NEAR THE LOW END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS MARIA IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THERE ARE SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ECMWF MOVING A WEAKER MARIA MORE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 17.9N 62.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 19.0N 63.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 20.6N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 21.9N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 22.9N 68.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 25.5N 70.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 30.0N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 37.5N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
