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| #45848 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 14.Sep.2005) TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 980 MB AND BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BETTER ORGANIZATION. WINDS COULD INCREASE A LITTLE MORE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NOT LIKELY. OPHELIA HESITATED A FEW HOURS AGO BUT IT NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHWARD AT 4 KNOTS. AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS...OPHELIA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. BECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT PRIMARILY A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FOR A DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...OPHELIA SHOULD ACCELERATE ONCE BACK OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LATITUDE FLOW. IT SHOULD BE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE...MAINLY DURING THE 12-36 HOUR PERIOD WHEN ALL MODELS SHOW A VERY SLOW MOTION. NOAA BUOY 41013 JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF OPHELIA REPORTED GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 985.7 MB AT 08Z. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 33.2N 77.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 33.8N 77.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 34.7N 76.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 35.3N 75.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 36.0N 73.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 39.0N 68.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 44.0N 59.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 19/0600Z 48.0N 48.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
