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| #458573 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 11.Sep.2011) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011 400 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NATE HAS DEGRADED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHRINKING AND IS NOW MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 60 KT. IN ADDITION...DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS NOW UP TO 1003 MB. BASED ON THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT. NATE IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN AND IT APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT IT WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY. AFTER LANDFALL...RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH AND RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW NATE DISSIPATING BY 36 HOURS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. NATE IS MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/6. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 19.9N 95.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 19.8N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 12/0600Z 19.7N 97.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA |
