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| #458577 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 11.Sep.2011) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 0900 UTC SUN SEP 11 2011 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 63.7W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......175NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 0SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 63.7W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 63.3W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...175NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.5N 66.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.5N 67.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...125NE 100SE 45SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.5N 68.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...125NE 100SE 45SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.0N 70.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...125NE 100SE 45SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 33.5N 68.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 43.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 63.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
