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| #458638 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 11.Sep.2011) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011 1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF NATE HAS ACTUALLY MOVED A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...KEEPING THE CENTER OFFSHORE UP TO THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE...WITH LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING ANYWHERE IN THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A RECENT 40-KT SHIP OBSERVATION NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT. NATE SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AFTER IT MOVES INLAND...AND THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TOMORROW AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AFTER SOME JUMPING AROUND BETWEEN THE FINAL AIRCRAFT FIX OVERNIGHT AND THE SATELLITE FIXES THIS MORNING...THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE AROUND 275/8. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 20.4N 96.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 20.5N 97.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
