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| #458695 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 11.Sep.2011) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011 400 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NATE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 1600 UTC JUST NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO AS A 40-KT TROPICAL STORM. SINCE LANDFALL...THE WINDS OVER LAND NEAR THE CENTER HAVE BEEN 25 KT OR LESS...SO NATE IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THIS ADVISORY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING OVER WATER WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. THERE IS LITTLE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NATE...AND IF THAT TREND CONTINUES THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TOMORROW AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 285 DEGREES...AT 7 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 20.6N 97.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 20.8N 98.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
