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| #45894 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:46 AM 14.Sep.2005) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...OPHELIA STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER... INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA... INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AND NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 41013 LOCATED SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND 54 MPH WITH A GUST TO 69 MPH BEFORE THE LARGE EYE OF OPHELIA PASSED OVER THE BUOY. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE NOW SPREAD ONSHORE THE SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...33.4 N... 77.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART |
