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| #459118 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 AM 13.Sep.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 13 2011 ...MARIA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 68.0W ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM E OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL PASS WEST OF BERMUDA ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES... 325 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
