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| #45914 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 14.Sep.2005) TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 1500Z WED SEP 14 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. AT 11 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. AT 11 AM EDT...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTHWARD. THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO NORTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 77.6W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB EYE DIAMETER 50 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 45SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 225SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 77.6W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 77.8W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.5N 76.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 35.1N 75.9W...NEAR OUTER BANKS MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 35.8N 74.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 36.8N 72.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 39.6N 68.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 45.0N 58.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 49.0N 45.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 77.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART |
