Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #459182 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 13.Sep.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 500 PM AST TUE SEP 13 2011 THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO RELAX A LITTLE OVER MARIA...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK CLASSIFICATION. GIVEN THE DECREASE IN SHEAR...THERE APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR MARIA TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WITH THE CYCLONE PEAKING AT 55 KT IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM AND HWRF THROUGH 48 HOURS. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THAT MARIA WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY 3 AND BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY DAY 4. AFTER STALLING FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...THE CENTER OF MARIA HAS JOGGED TO THE NORTH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DUE TO THE RECENT JUMPY MOTION...A LONGER TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 355/07 IS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. MARIA SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BETWEEN THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY 48 HOURS...MARIA WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST BEYOND 24 HOURS. THROUGH THAT TIME...THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THAT ISLAND AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 22.8N 67.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 24.1N 68.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 27.1N 68.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 30.6N 68.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 35.0N 66.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 48.5N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 17/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
