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| #459409 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 14.Sep.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 500 PM AST WED SEP 14 2011 ALTHOUGH THE CENTER REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH MORE BANDING FEATURES IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE ARE EVEN SOME HINTS FROM THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES THAT THE CENTER MAY BE TRYING TO REFORM A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF ABOUT 50 KT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS EVENING FOR A MORE PRECISE ESTIMATE. WITH THE STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENTS...SOME INTENSIFICATION SEEMS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE MARIA HAS MODERATE SHEAR AND WARM WATER. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS FOR THE LAST ADVISORY...SHOWING A PEAK NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...SO THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. MARIA SHOULD BE TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS DUE TO VERY HIGH SHEAR AND COLD WATER...AND BE ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY DAY 3. MARIA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 13 KT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH DIVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SEPARATED FROM THE TROUGH...AND LIE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REST OF THE MODELS. THE NHC FORECAST LEANS ON THOSE TOP-PERFORMING MODELS...AND ENDS UP A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 26.3N 69.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 29.2N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 33.8N 66.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 39.0N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 45.0N 53.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 17/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
