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| #459481 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 PM 14.Sep.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 1100 PM AST WED SEP 14 2011 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING MARIA A FEW HOURS AGO FOUND PEAK SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 56 KT AND PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 73 KT. LEANING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE SFMR DATA...THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT. VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PREDICTED TO BECOME VERY STRONG...AND THE SEA SURFACE DOES NOT COOL SIGNIFICANTLY...UNTIL ABOUT 36 HOURS. MARIA HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST LGEM RUN. IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE CONSIDERABLY...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. MARIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS AS GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT DEPICTS THE SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE BY THAT TIME. CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE A MOTION SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH AT AROUND 16 KT. MARIA IS MOVING IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE AND A STRONG TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN CANADA. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH CONTINUED ACCELERATION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CLOSE TO THE RELIABLE GFS MODEL TRACK. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD BE MINDFUL THAT STRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 28.0N 68.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 31.3N 67.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 36.2N 64.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 41.8N 57.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 48.0N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
