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| #459811 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 16.Sep.2011) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2011 MARIA IS BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. ALL OF THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION HAS ROTATED NORTH OF THE CENTER WITH THE CLOUD TOPS WARMING. DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH... SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 65 KT. CANADIAN BUOY REPORTED 985.4 MB AT 12Z WITH ABOUT 25 KT OF WIND...WHICH IS THE SOURCE OF THE 983 MB INITIAL PRESSURE. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT PASSES NEWFOUNDLAND LATER TODAY...AND WEAKEN THEREAFTER DUE TO COLD WATER. THIS WEAKENING WILL BE SLOWER THAN USUAL DUE TO THE EXTREME FORWARD MOTION...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. MARIA IS MOVING RATHER RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 45 KT. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN EVEN FASTER FORWARD SPEED AROUND 50 KT ACROSS THE AVALON PENINSULA TODAY...WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING ABSORBED BY 24 HOURS WITHIN A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ONLY OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND COULD REMAIN OFFSHORE IF THE CENTER MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 44.6N 56.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 50.5N 49.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN |
