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| #46084 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 15.Sep.2005) TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS STILL 75 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 982 MB AND THE EYEWALL IS WELL-DEFINED EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION. THE OUTFLOW IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS. THE SHEAR AND THE OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING SO...OPHELIA WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. OPHELIA SHOULD BE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION. OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 055 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE STILL WEAK SO NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE HURRICANE FROM THE NORTHWEST IN COMBINATION WITH AND A RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST...WOULD PROBABLY FORCE OPHELIA TEMPORARILY ON A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. ON THIS BASIS...THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE LEFT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO SUPPORTS THE LEFTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK. THIS NEW TRACK BRINGS OPHELIA A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND THEN NOVA SCOTIA BUT BY THEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE IN TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 34.7N 76.1W 75 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 35.0N 75.5W 70 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 35.7N 74.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 37.0N 73.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 39.0N 71.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 44.0N 64.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 19/0600Z 47.2N 56.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 20/0600Z 50.5N 40.1W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
