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| #4614 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 PM 12.Aug.2004) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004 ...CHARLEY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN CUBA... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. AT 11 PM...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET TO OCEAN REEF...AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST OR BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE CUBAN MAINLAND 55 MILES...90 KM...SOUTH OF HAVANA CUBA. CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CHARLEY NEAR HAVANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE FLORIDA WEST COAST LATER FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES CHARLEY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 14 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA NEAR AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. IN ADDITION...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH CHARLEY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...22.2 N... 82.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN |
