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| #461806 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 25.Sep.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011 PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PHILIPPE MOVING TOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND GRADUALLY TURNING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND MOVING NORTHWARD AFTER THAT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 5...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF MODEL. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THAT MODEL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TCVN AND TVCA. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...PHILLIPE IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT AND BE MOVING OVER SUB-27C SSTS AND INTO A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...BUT BELOW THE MORE ROBUST GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH STILL INSIST THAT PHILLIPE WILL BE NEAR CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH BY THE DAY 4-5 PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 12.5N 30.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 13.3N 32.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 14.4N 33.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 15.5N 34.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 16.7N 35.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 19.3N 37.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 22.5N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 26.0N 38.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
