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| #462353 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 27.Sep.2011) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 2100 UTC TUE SEP 27 2011 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 36.0W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 30SE 0SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 36.0W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 35.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.4N 37.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.5N 38.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.9N 39.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.3N 41.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.6N 42.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 24.0N 44.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 25.5N 47.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 36.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
