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| #462571 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 28.Sep.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2011 PHILIPPE REMAINS A STRONGLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS MOTION WILL THEN CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...UNTIL A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC MOVES EASTWARD AND ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO RESTRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD...IN LARGE PART BECAUSE OF A MORE WESTERLY INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. PHILIPPE IS STILL STRONGLY SHEARED...AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THEN INCREASE AFTER THAT. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE AFTER THAT TIME. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 16.4N 38.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 17.3N 39.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 18.3N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 20.0N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 21.5N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 23.5N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 24.5N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/1200Z 25.0N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY |
